Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 94.2% em 27 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? é resolvido?

Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 94.2%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

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Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 31 minutos

25/09/23, 00:20 UTC1/01/30, 07:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolves YES if by the creator's best judgement, a Elon-Musk-controlled company creates an AGI by 2030 before any other company.

Tesla AI and xAI are the main AI labs to monitor, but any Elon-controlled company counts.
Also resolves YES if a nonprofit or government program led by Musk creates the first AGI by 2030, or if Elon Musk personally develops the first AGI.
Resolves NO if a non-Musk organization creates AGI first by 2030 or if AGI does not exist by 2030.
Judgement on whether a model constitutes AGI will be at the discretion of the creator, who will take into account benchmark performance, expert opinion, and any other evidence deemed to be credible.