Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 91.9% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

Will @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

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Não 91.9%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Atualizado há 19 horas

Desatualizado

24/02/24, 10:44 UTC1/01/30, 10:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidade

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For example, if he decides that actually we should try to build ASI even if it means a great risk to the human race.

Or if he decides that the creation of ASI doesn't actually pose a great risk to the human race.
Update 2025-02-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Key Resolution Update:
The reversal must include an explicit admission that Yudkowsky was wrong about his previous stance on AI safety.
Merely adjusting his perspective (e.g., claiming he was only slightly off or that we just got lucky) will not meet the criteria.
The explicit admission is the central and decisive component for a valid resolution.