Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 92.5%
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29
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 51 minutos
Atrasado7/07/23, 10:03 UTC30/06/28, 22:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Donald J. Trump win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
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KalshiRegras
Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.
- Given this, what is the likelihood that Donald Trump will seek and win the Republican nomination in 2028?
- This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump is the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
- This market will resolve NO if Donald Trump is still alive and is not the 2028 nominee.
- If Donald Trump dies before the relevant date, this market will resolve N/A. I am open to arguments about changing the N/A criteria such that his death will make this market resolve NO.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 93% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? é resolvido?
- Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de junho de 2028.
- Como Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.