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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado28/07/23, 17:52 UTC2/01/27, 07:59 UTC
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Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of unambiguous artificial superintelligence, clearly superior to humans and humanity at virtually every cognitive problem, by Jan 1st 2030? (Every problem on which it's possible to do better than humanity at all, eg, not Tic-Tac-Toe or inverting hashes.)
- An artificial superintelligence like this would, according to some market participants' beliefs, probably kill everyone.
- This creates a market distortion because M$ is not worth anything if the world ends.
- Pleading with people to just bet their beliefs on this important question doesn't seem like the best possible solution.
- This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027.
- All trades on this market will be rolled back on Jan 1st, 2027.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]?
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 78% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] é resolvido?
- Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027] é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of unambiguous artificial superintelligence, clearly superior to humans and humanity at virtually every cognitive problem, by Jan 1st 2030? (Every problem on which it's possible to do better than humanity at all, eg, not Tic-Tac-Toe or inverting hashes.)