Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 66.2%
Previsores
349
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado28/07/23, 17:52 UTC2/01/27, 07:59 UTC
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IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
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Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of unambiguous artificial superintelligence, clearly superior to humans and humanity at virtually every cognitive problem, by Jan 1st 2030? (Every problem on which it's possible to do better than humanity at all, eg, not Tic-Tac-Toe or inverting hashes.)
- An artificial superintelligence like this would, according to some market participants' beliefs, probably kill everyone.
- This creates a market distortion because M$ is not worth anything if the world ends.
- Pleading with people to just bet their beliefs on this important question doesn't seem like the best possible solution.
- This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027.
- All trades on this market will be rolled back on Jan 1st, 2027.
