Will any of OpenAI’s massive release of mathematical results be shown to be flawed by the end of November?
IAOne-Off
Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Yes (99%)
Resolvido: 8 de out. de 2026, 11:37
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Resultado Vencedor
Yes
A 7 dias
—
A 24 horas
37%
SurpresaAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 8 de out. de 2026, 21:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes99%
No1%
Ganhou
Perdeu
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[tweet]YES if, by November 30, there is a consensus in credible reporting or within the academic community that at least one of the core arguments, theorems, or proofs in OpenAI's GitHub repo is fatally flawed or incorrect.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- "Flawed" means a core mathematical or theoretical error is identified that invalidates the main result of the paper, and the error is either unfixable or difficult to patch.
- Nitpicks—such as minor typos, formatting errors, minor translation gaps in the Lean formalization that do not undermine the mathematical proof's validity, or easily patchable edge cases—do not count toward a YES resolution.
- The flaw has to be in the repo as it is released today - later hotfixes don’t remove an eligible flaw, but later additions don’t count either.