Will any manufacturer ship 1 GW or more of perovskite solar modules in a single calendar year by December 31, 2028?
One-OffTecnologiaCiênciaAdoção2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 57.6%
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3
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 30 minutos
6/04/26, 18:23 UTC31/12/28, 05:00 UTC
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This market resolves YES if any solar manufacturer has commercially shipped solar modules containing a perovskite absorber layer totaling 1 GW or more in a single calendar year on or before December 31, 2028.
- YES if: Any company ships >=1,000 MW of commercial perovskite or perovskite-silicon tandem modules (with bankable warranties) in any calendar year 2026, 2027, or 2028 NO if: No manufacturer reaches the 1 GW annual shipment threshold by Dec 31, 2028.
- Research modules, BIPV pilot projects, or indoor PV products without bankable warranties do not count.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- NREL / IEA photovoltaic power systems deployment tracking
- LONGi, Oxford PV, Saule Technologies commercial shipment announcements
