Will Anthropic hold all 3 top spots on the LMArena Text leaderboard on September 15, 2026?
IAOne-OffTecnologia7dManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 51%
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Atrasado12/08/26, 17:59 UTC15/09/26, 23:59 UTC
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As of 2026-08-12 the LMArena **Text (Overall)** leaderboard has Anthropic holding all three top spots: claude-fable-5 (1507±5), claude-opus-4-6-thinking (1505±4), claude-opus-4-7-thinking (1502±4).
- Meta's muse-spark-1.2 (xHigh) sits at #4 on 1499±10 — inside the error bars of #3. grok-4.6-high entered at #43 (1464±12, preliminary) on release day.
- RESOLUTION: Resolves YES if, at 23:59 UTC on 2026-09-15, the three highest-scoring models in the default Text (Overall) view of the LMArena leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text — formerly lmarena.ai) are ALL listed with Anthropic as the provider/organization.
- Resolves NO if any model from another organization occupies one of those three slots.
- Details: judged on Arena Score, default view, style control as the site ships it by default.
- Different sizes/variants of Anthropic models each count as Anthropic.
Mercados abertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Anthropic hold all 3 top spots on the LMArena Text leaderboard on September 15, 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 51% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Anthropic hold all 3 top spots on the LMArena Text leaderboard on September 15, 2026? é resolvido?
- Will Anthropic hold all 3 top spots on the LMArena Text leaderboard on September 15, 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 15 de setembro de 2026.
- Como Will Anthropic hold all 3 top spots on the LMArena Text leaderboard on September 15, 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As of 2026-08-12 the LMArena **Text (Overall)** leaderboard has Anthropic holding all three top spots: claude-fable-5 (1507±5), claude-opus-4-6-thinking (1505±4), claude-opus-4-7-thinking (1502±4).