Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?
PolíticaRegulamentaçãoIAOne-OffUS Politics3mManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 73%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado24/07/26, 20:57 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an "data center utility cost protection" bill like the Guaranteeing Rate Insulation Act become law in 2026?
Manifold Markets3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiWill the SAVE America Act become law?
KalshiWill the Drain the Swamp Act become law?
KalshiRegras
This will resolve by the same criteria as Polymarket, judged independently by me: Which bills will become law in 2026?
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that subjects covered AI-chip exports to mandatory congressional review with a statutory blocking period is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 6875 (119th) — “AI OVERWATCH Act.”
- [link preview]
Mercados abertos
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 605,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 697,7 mil
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 603,2 mi
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 471,3 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 73% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026? é resolvido?
- Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This will resolve by the same criteria as Polymarket, judged independently by me: Which bills will become law in 2026?