Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.7%
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18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado4/07/23, 20:25 UTC31/12/29, 23:00 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
Resolves yes if by 2030 an AI exists which directly causes itself and its kin to go extinct.
- Resolves no otherwise.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
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- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
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- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
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- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
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- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI wipe out AI before 2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 94% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AI wipe out AI before 2030? é resolvido?
- Will AI wipe out AI before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como Will AI wipe out AI before 2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves yes if by 2030 an AI exists which directly causes itself and its kin to go extinct.