Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 58%
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Atrasado22/04/26, 10:08 UTC31/12/28, 11:07 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
From https://blog.mozilla.org/en/privacy-security/ai-security-zero-day-vulnerabilities/:
- Encouragingly, we also haven’t seen any bugs that couldn’t have been found by an elite human researcher.
- Some commentators predict that future AI models will unearth entirely new forms of vulnerabilities that defy our current comprehension, but we don’t think so.
- Software like Firefox is designed in a modular way for humans to be able to reason about its correctness.
- It is complex, but not arbitrarily complex.
- By 2029, will this turn out to be false?
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 58% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher? é resolvido?
- Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: From https://blog.mozilla.org/en/privacy-security/ai-security-zero-day-vulnerabilities/: