Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 04:02 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 71.7%
Previsores
34
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
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Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado1/12/25, 14:07 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.
- Being able to detect like >50% of entirely AI generated photos and videos would resolve this market YES.
- If it's unclear, resolves to a poll.
- Should be pretty obvious though I hope
- Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator considers current AI detectors to meaningfully exist for current GenAI, as there are tools that mostly work and AI content is often detectable to the eye at >50% accuracy.
- This suggests the bar for "meaningful existence" in 2028 is similar - tools that mostly work with >50% detection rate.