Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 75.1%
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33
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado1/12/25, 14:07 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.
- Being able to detect like >50% of entirely AI generated photos and videos would resolve this market YES.
- If it's unclear, resolves to a poll.
- Should be pretty obvious though I hope
- Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator considers current AI detectors to meaningfully exist for current GenAI, as there are tools that mostly work and AI content is often detectable to the eye at >50% accuracy.
- This suggests the bar for "meaningful existence" in 2028 is similar - tools that mostly work with >50% detection rate.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 75% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028? é resolvido?
- Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.