Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
In 2030 or earlier 55%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
75
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado26/01/24, 09:59 UTC2/01/28, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
0%
0%
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With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives??
- A Manifold Markets cota In 2030 or earlier em 55% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? é resolvido?
- Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.