Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 85.5%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado27/05/25, 10:56 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
This market resolves YES if undergraduate enrolment in the UK drops by 20% or more relative to the 2025 baseline:
- Total undergraduate enrolment falls below 80% of the 2025 level, based on official data from HESA (Higher Education Statistics Agency) or a UK government source.
- Crucially, the drop must be plausibly linked to AI.
- This could include evidence that students are choosing AI learning alternatives, institutions are citing AI as a reason for declining enrolment, or official reports attribute part of the decline to the growing role of AI has in automating the economy.
- The causal connection to AI does not need to be conclusive, but it must be reasonable and supported by documentation (e.g. policy papers, media reporting, or institutional statements).
- Please feel free to ask questions if you’re unsure how to interpret this criterion when betting.
