Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 78%
Previsores
52
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 2 horas
Desatualizado29/12/22, 09:32 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors.
- Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?
- Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum Fourier Transform/Shor's Algorithm to count, and without pre-compilation.
- Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether a quantum computer factors a number greater than 31 by the end of 2026 (not before 2026 begins).
Mercados abertos
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- € 1,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,3 mi
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
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- € 1,1 mi
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- Yes60%
- No40%
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- Volume 24h
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- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 78% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? é resolvido?
- Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors.