Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 14:42 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atual
Não 86.4%
Não 86.4%Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado ontem
Desatualizado7/05/23, 19:44 UTC13/07/44, 04:59 UTC
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Regras
This question is meant to assess what the clock speed of the first large-scale fault-tolerant computers will be like.
- It asks about the first system which factors at least two 2048-bit semiprimes, without any "manual tweaks".
- It resolves YES if, based on reporting and technical publications, it appears that this system is capable, with a reasonably proficient human operator, of factoring two new random 2048-bit semiprimes given to it in under a minute, with at least 95% probability over the choice of the semiprimes.
- "Manual tweaks" here includes any human using their hands or tools to interface with the machine in ways that can't in principle be done using a keyboard.
- This is to rule out circuits which are engineered with the modulus "baked in".
- Flipping a switch on and off by hand to reset the machine would not be a manual tweak.
