Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 71%
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9
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado26/03/26, 22:45 UTC2/01/28, 07:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsRegras
See: https://www.mercor.com/blog/introducing-apex-swe/
- Resolution Criteria
- APEX-SWE is a benchmark for assessing whether frontier AI models can execute economically valuable software engineering work.
- The market resolves YES when any frontier AI model achieves a Pass@1 score of 90% or higher on the APEX-SWE benchmark.
- Resolution will be verified through official APEX-SWE leaderboard results published at https://www.mercor.com/apex/ or peer-reviewed publications documenting the result.
- APEX-SWE assesses two novel task types that reflect real-world software engineering work: Integration tasks, which require constructing end-to-end systems across heterogeneous cloud primitives, business applications, and infrastructure-as-code services, and Observability tasks, which require debugging production failures using telemetry signals such as logs and dashboards, as well as unstructured context.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 71% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028? é resolvido?
- Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: See: https://www.mercor.com/blog/introducing-apex-swe/