Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Nobody (linked market resolves NO) 50%Líder entre 11 opções
Nobody (linked market resolves NO) 50%Previsores
42
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-23.5 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado8/02/25, 00:00 UTC2/01/28, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketRegras
This market is based on: @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
- If the linked Scott Alexander market resolves NO, this market resolves to 'Nobody'.
- If the linked market resolves YES, this market resolves based on which AI was used to trigger the resolution of the linked market.
- I reserve the right to edit options in the interest of making this market as predictively useful as possible.
- For example, to avoid overlap, if 'OpenAI' and 'Sam Altman' were both options I would edit 'Sam Altman' to say 'The first AI dev organization founded by Sam Altman after he leaves OpenAI'.
- I will generally try to edit the most recently added option in such a scenario, and I will perform the edit as soon as the issue is brought to my attention.
