Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 00:30 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atual
Fabiano Caruana 14.5%Líder entre 13 opções
Fabiano Caruana 14.5%Previsores
61
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 horas
Desatualizado2/01/24, 23:36 UTC1/01/40, 07:59 UTC
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Magnus Carlsen has been the number 1 ranked player by classical chess FIDE rating since July 2011.
- This question resolves to the first person who is not Magnus Carlsen to be rated number 1 on a FIDE monthly rating list.
- In case of unforseen circumstances (e.g. the creation of a competitor organization to FIDE), I will use a rating list that best includes all top players and all classical games.
- If you decide to add additional answers, please add only realistic people; I'll resolve troll answers to N/A. I will not bet in this market.
- Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Magnus Carlsen doesn't play any classical chess for 12 consecutive calendar months, he will be removed from the FIDE rating lists, and the market will be resolved to the top player on the list at that time.