Which will happen first: AGI, or a pile of sand at my local park being removed?
One-OffIATecnologia3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 00:06 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualPile of sand removed 78.4%
Previsores
44
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado24/03/24, 20:47 UTC1/04/30, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a cell cultured meat product be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill vegan shrimp be easily purchasable at my local Walmart by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow will my local supermarket stack shelves in 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhich events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenRouter AI token usage in October
KalshiRegras
This pile of sand has been here for at least 3 years.
- I presume they want to use it for some kind of construction purpose.
- Every time I see it I think about the insane progress happening in the tech world and yet how we are still completely incapable of building or doing anything in the real world.
- [image]For the purposes of this question, AGI uses the Metaculus definition of weak AGI
- https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/
