Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Hawaii's 2nd District?
0.8 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleiçãoEleições de meio de mandato dos EUA 202615d
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualDemocratic Party — Jill Tokuda 94.2%-0.8ptLíder entre 3 opções
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1
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multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Variação 7d
-0.8 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
6/10/26, 05:45 UTC4/11/26, 12:00 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
