Which of these people will be alive in the year we get ASI?

Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which of these people will be alive in the year we get ASI??

A Manifold Markets cota Nick Bostrom em 85.2% em 25 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Which of these people will be alive in the year we get ASI? é resolvido?

Which of these people will be alive in the year we get ASI? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de dezembro de 2199.

Como Which of these people will be alive in the year we get ASI? é liquidado?

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: "We get ASI" = 1 January of the year before the first of the questions in this series to resolve YES (e.g. if https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 resolves NO and https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 resolves YES, this question resolves based on who is alive on 1 Jan 2024).

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-3.8pt88.7%
• Anthropic+1.8pt10.3%
• OpenAI+0.5pt1%

+18 mais resultados

Volume total

€ 3,2 mi

Volume 24h

€ 138 mil

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt28%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.8pt22%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.2pt17%

+7 mais resultados

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+8.0pt83%
• December 15,+9.0pt82%
• November 30,-2.0pt60%

+9 mais resultados

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+1.2pt55.5%
• Gemini-3.4pt31.8%
• ChatGPT-0.2pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+3.0pt53.5%
• Google-3.0pt36.4%
• OpenAI-0.3pt6.1%

+12 mais resultados

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202794%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt92%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

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