Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualMoonbase 51.8%
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16
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Variação 7d
+0.6 pts
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Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado25/03/26, 05:07 UTC25/03/36, 05:02 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegras
Moonbase: a single pressurized volume on the Moon with at least six occupants for a contiguous Earth year.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph for SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- Related: @/EvanDaniel/which-is-first-crewed-starships-to
