Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualMoonbase 51.3%
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16
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 30 minutos
25/03/26, 05:07 UTC25/03/36, 05:02 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWill California high-speed rail use Siemens trains?
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KalshiWill there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040?
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PolymarketRegras
Moonbase: a single pressurized volume on the Moon with at least six occupants for a contiguous Earth year.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph for SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- Related: @/EvanDaniel/which-is-first-crewed-starships-to
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail??
- A Manifold Markets cota Moonbase em 51% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail? é resolvido?
- Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail? deverá ser resolvido em 25 de março de 2036.
- Como Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Moonbase: a single pressurized volume on the Moon with at least six occupants for a contiguous Earth year.