Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Artemis III launch 77.5%Líder entre 5 opções
Artemis III launch 77.5%Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
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Previsão
Variação 7d
+0.3 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 minuto
10/08/24, 14:15 UTC1/09/29, 05:59 UTC
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[tweet]Update 2025-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Artemis III option:
- A mission will count as Artemis III if it is officially designated as such, even if the nature of that mission changes radically from its original or current plans.
- Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Starliner-2: Counts when NASA officially designates a mission as "Starliner-2".
- If no mission is designated "Starliner-2" (e.g., it's skipped or canceled), this outcome does not occur.
- New Glenn 15: Refers to the 15th flight of New Glenn (counting flights), not a specific named mission.