Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Other 31.7%Líder entre 8 opções
Other 31.7%Previsores
20
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado18/01/24, 14:27 UTC1/01/50, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketRegras
For the purposes of this market, I will consider countries which are members of the OSCE.
- This is meant to be a proxy of "European country", but note that it also includes several (post-Soviet) countries which are geographically in Asia.
- I will not count the US and Canada.
- ! Any changes which result directly from the current Russia-Ukraine war do not count !
- I will only count significant changes; I don't think there will be many opportunities for ambiguity, but, to give a formal criterion, the border change should affect at least 1.000 people.
- This is meant to rule out minor adjustments, e.g. to a border along a river which changes its course.
