Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
OpenAI 39.5%+22.7ptLíder entre 20 opções
Previsores
95
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+22.7 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 minutos
7/12/22, 19:13 UTC1/01/36, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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KalshiRegras
If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
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- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
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KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,9 mi
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
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- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
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- Volume total
- € 156,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 26,1 mil
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Which company will create AGI first??
- A Manifold Markets cota OpenAI em 40% em 21 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Which company will create AGI first? é resolvido?
- Which company will create AGI first? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2036.
- Como Which company will create AGI first? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the first company that brings AGI to the world is not listed, resolves N/A