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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Space
  3. When will there be x simultaneously operational Starships?
Manifold Markets

When will there be x simultaneously operational Starships?

One-OffSpace2m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
05 by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 2026 1%
Líder entre 19 opções
Previsores

16

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 6 dias

Desatualizado
19/06/25, 15:0631/08/26, 14:30

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

05 by end of 2026/08 i.e. Aug 20261%

Regras

To be operational, a Starship must have launched.

Manifold Markets
  • A Starship in flight is still operational if there is a payload deployment expected or is carrying goods to a landing destination or operations on the Starship are continuing eg an operating telescope built into a starship would be operational as long as the telescope has use.
  • This almost certainly means at least communications with the Starship must still be possible.
  • After the operational phase of a flight, a starship is operational if the intent is to recover it for reuse.
  • Starships that have landed or been caught are considered operational if there is intent to reuse or there is no available information indicating otherwise.
  • For example, if it is known that a vehicle has been or is in the process of being scrapped or SpaceX announce it cannot or isn't going to be re-flown then it is no longer operational.

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Regras

To be operational, a Starship must have launched.

Manifold Markets
  • A Starship in flight is still operational if there is a payload deployment expected or is carrying goods to a landing destination or operations on the Starship are continuing eg an operating telescope built into a starship would be operational as long as the telescope has use.
  • This almost certainly means at least communications with the Starship must still be possible.
  • After the operational phase of a flight, a starship is operational if the intent is to recover it for reuse.
  • Starships that have landed or been caught are considered operational if there is intent to reuse or there is no available information indicating otherwise.
  • For example, if it is known that a vehicle has been or is in the process of being scrapped or SpaceX announce it cannot or isn't going to be re-flown then it is no longer operational.