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  3. When will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?
Manifold Markets

When will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

One-OffPolíticaGeopolíticaMiddle East19d
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-15 0%
Líder entre 6 opções
Previsores

14

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 4 dias

Desatualizado
29/03/26, 11:4230/06/26, 11:05

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-15
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-30
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-05-15
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-05-31
0%

Resultado escolhido

By 2026-06-154%

Regras

When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution Criteria
  • An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year.
  • I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
  • Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping.

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Regras

When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution Criteria
  • An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year.
  • I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
  • Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping.