Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNot before 2050 38.8%Líder entre 9 opções
Previsores
48
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 21 minutos
16/08/25, 11:55 UTC1/01/50, 10:49 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will China invade Taiwan
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LimitlessRegras
Creating this market because I think the year by year probabilities in my other market are a bit off (at market creation 25% chance of an invasion in 2028 which is a US election year).
- This will resolve to the same date as the other market - have fun arbitraging! See the other market for more detailed resolution criteria.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-china-invade-taiwan)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-mega-mar)(I did some initial trades on this market to bring the probabilities in line with the other market, but won't trade further expect to exit that position)
