Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
2030 or later 25.3%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado27/05/24, 17:02 UTC1/01/30, 21:59 UTC
Tendências
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(This is a lightly modified multiple-choice version of this 2024 market, with slightly simplified criteria.)
- This question resolves to YES if an AI agent has learned to speedrun at least one popular category (≥30 unique runners on speedrun.com or another leaderboard) of any video game, and has finished at least one run with a better time than any human speedrunner at the time.
- Native PC or emulated console games are both fine.
- Criteria for resolution:
- The AI must be capable of speedrunning the game in real time and learn to do so without directly learning from human inputs (e.g. learning from Youtube videos is fine).
- A traditional TAS (tool-assisted speedrun) does not count.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
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- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
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- € 9,1 mi
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR??
- A Manifold Markets cota 2030 or later em 25% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR? é resolvido?
- When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.
- Como When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: (This is a lightly modified multiple-choice version of this 2024 market, with slightly simplified criteria.)