Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
>=2030 69.2%Líder entre 7 opções
>=2030 69.2%Previsores
39
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado1/01/24, 17:57 UTC9/01/30, 05:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
This market is necessarily slightly subjective.
- I will be tentatively operationalizing the question as:
- The median (CPI-adjusted) salary for most software engineers dropping to ~50% below the 2021 all-time-high, OR
- The number of software engineers in the United States dropping by ~50%, OR
- Some combination of the above of the same significance (e.g. 25% salary drop + 25% dropout).
- I will probably be looking at the BLS summaries or the levels.fyi end-of-year report unless someone in the comments suggests a better source.
