Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualAGI is used in longevity research, but doesn't make significant advances 74.7%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
46
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 20 horas
Desatualizado16/04/24, 17:26 UTC2/01/40, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]
Manifold Markets4. Discourse about AGI and superintelligence will become less fashionable and less common.
Manifold MarketsWill Jose Luis Ricon have a daughter who becomes obsessed with longevity?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiRegras
AGI is currently generally expected to appear some time in 2030s: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708
- I would like to explore whether AGI will have any significant effect on longevity research and if no, then why.
- Here are some definitions of things mentioned in the options:
- AGI — and AI system, capable of autonomously doing any tasks involved in scientific research (since this question is about research)
- Significant advances in longevity — increasing the life-expectancy at birth by at least 2x, to at least 160 years.
- Whether AGI is used in longevity research — yes if some notable papers in the field are fully written by AI or some procedures are fully developed by AI.
Mercados abertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume total
- € 225,9 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 157 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,4 mi
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 348,3 mil
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040??
- A Manifold Markets cota AGI is used in longevity research, but doesn't make significant advances em 75% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040? é resolvido?
- What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2040.
- Como What will be true about AGI and longevity in 2040? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: AGI is currently generally expected to appear some time in 2030s: @/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708