What will be the tipping-point contest for the Senate in 2026?
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado2/07/26, 09:01 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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This market will resolve to the U.S. state that is determined to be the "tipping-point contest" for control of the Senate following the 2026 midterm elections.
- The "tipping-point contest" will be defined as the 2026 Senate contest that gives the 19th-best margin to Republicans and 17th-best margin to Democrats out of the 35 seats up for election in 2026 (the 33 Class II seats and 2) BY TWO-PARTY VOTE SHARE, because this would give Democrats their 51st seat (counting Angus King and Bernie Sanders) or Republicans their 50th needed for Senate control.
- In Nebraska, Dan Osborn will be considered the Democratic candidate for this market.
- In Montana, if both Seth Bodnar and Alani Bankhead (or a different person on the Democratic line) are on the ballot, whichever of the two receives more votes will be considered the Democratic candidate.
- Close date is indicative only.
- This market will close whenever results are officially finalized in all states that could reasonably be the tipping-point contest by the relevant election authorities.