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  3. What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

PolíticaCommoditiesIA5m
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSem KYC
Previsão da comunidade atual
Maine
Maine 15.5%
Líder entre 16 opções
Previsores

17

Tipo de pergunta

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 5 dias

Desatualizado
2/12/24, 1:116/12/26, 4:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Maine16%

Regras

If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.

Manifold Markets
  • If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
  • For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
  • If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
  • Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
  • Feel free to add more states you think could be it!

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Regras

If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.

Manifold Markets
  • If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
  • For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
  • If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
  • Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
  • Feel free to add more states you think could be it!