World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEconomiaForeign ExchangeBusiness & Corporate
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 64%
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33
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 23 minutos
22/05/23, 02:13 UTC1/02/01, 07:59 UTC
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Nominal US Dollars, not PPP adjusted, not inflation adjusted.
- Resolves prob to 10*((world gdp 2100 / world gdp 2023)^(1/77)-1)
- If dollars cease to exist during the interval, I'll use the next largest fiat currency at the last available exchange rate from dollars to that currency.
- (e.g., if 1 USD = 4 Yuan just before the dollar ceases to exist, then the 2100 world gdp will be measured in Yuan and divided by 4 to convert it to the dollars that no longer exist)
- Related arb-able markets:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-annualized-nominal)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JonathanRay/what-will-be-the-relative-change-in-c6b0e4fca80a)