Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 53.7%
Previsores
21
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado20/11/25, 09:43 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 470 GWdc before January 1st 2030.
- For the purposes of this market:
- “Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” means the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial, and residential), as of the end of calendar year 2029.
- The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA/Wood Mackenzie’s “US Solar Market Insight” (YIR or Q4 report).
- If that report clearly states that year‑end 2029 U.S. solar capacity was ≥ 470 GWdc, the market resolves YES.
- If it clearly states it was < 470 GWdc, the market resolves NO.
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 54% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? é resolvido?
- US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.
- Como US solar capacity doubles over 2025-2030? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 470 GWdc before January 1st 2030.
