Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 55.2% em 8 de outubro de 2026.

Quando US solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030? é resolvido?

US solar capacity reaches 500 GWdc before 2030? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2029.

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 55.2%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

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Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 8 horas

Desatualizado

21/11/25, 13:10 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity reached at least 500 GWdc before January 1st 2030.

For the purposes of this market:
“Cumulative installed U.S. solar PV capacity” refers to the total nameplate direct‑current (DC) capacity of all grid‑connected solar photovoltaic systems in the United States (utility‑scale, community, commercial, and residential) that are in service and counted as installed by the end of calendar year 2029.
The primary reference for resolution should be the cumulative capacity figures in SEIA / Wood Mackenzie’s US Solar Market Insight (Year‑in‑Review or Q4 report).
If that report clearly states that year‑end 2029 U.S. solar PV capacity was ≥ 500 GWdc, this market resolves YES.
If it clearly states it was < 500 GWdc, this market resolves NO.