Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 83.6%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 horas
Desatualizado20/07/26, 15:53 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiWill the U.S. take at least 1% stakes in both OpenAI and Anthropic?
KalshiRegras
Resolves YES iff the US government nationalizes either OpenAI or Anthropic (or both) by 11:59pm December 31st 2028.
- 'Nationalize' means either the US government owns >50% of the firm's equity with voting rights (by whatever means) or USG takes over operations at the firm using some power like eminent domain or exercising the Defense Production Act.
- Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A US Sovereign Wealth Fund owning >50% of voting equity in OpenAI or Anthropic would count as US government ownership for the purposes of this market.
Mercados abertos
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 84% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029? é resolvido?
- US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2028.
- Como US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES iff the US government nationalizes either OpenAI or Anthropic (or both) by 11:59pm December 31st 2028.