Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 81%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado28/07/25, 22:16 UTC31/12/59, 23:15 UTC
Tendências
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Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has publicly, explicitly, and unambiguously declared that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been achieved before the reigning Pope makes an equivalent declaration.
- Resolution criteria
- What counts as a declaration?
- A clear, public statement (speech, press release, published interview, or official post on a verified social‑media account) asserting that humanity has created an artificial intelligence with capabilities broadly equal to—or exceeding—those of an average human across most cognitive domains.
- Mere claims of “powerful AI,” “superintelligence on the horizon,” or marketing hype do not suffice; the speaker must explicitly confirm that AGI already exists.
- Evidence standard
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Trump declares AGI before the Pope??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 81% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Trump declares AGI before the Pope? é resolvido?
- Trump declares AGI before the Pope? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2059.
- Como Trump declares AGI before the Pope? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has publicly, explicitly, and unambiguously declared that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been achieved before the reigning Pope makes an equivalent declaration.