Quais são as probabilidades atuais de There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040?

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 51.2% em 29 de outubro de 2026.

There will be a change to the permanent members of the UN Security council before 2040

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 51.2%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 39 minutos

30/12/22, 19:25 UTC1/01/40, 19:00 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

what counts: 1. new permanent member 2. member removed 3. expansion / shrinking of membership 4. removal of the veto power 5. dissolution of the UN

Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Russia breaks apart, the market will follow the part which retains:
Moscow/the capital
Control of the military
The cultural core
If there is a division at such a high level that it's not clear which part represents Russia, the market may be voided.