Previsão da comunidade atual
Sim 53.1%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 horas
Desatualizado17/08/25, 10:40 UTC30/03/29, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, before the federal polling day in February/March 2029 (if any) or by 31 Mar 2029, 23:59 CET otherwise, the federal cabinet in office is no longer a CDU/CSU–SPD coalition.
- This can occur via: (a) the Bundestag elects a new chancellor heading a different coalition; or (b) CDU/CSU or SPD exits government such that ministers from both are no longer in the cabinet.
- Verification will rely on official listings and announcements (Bundestag records of chancellor election and cabinet composition; presidential/bundestag notices on cabinet changes).
- (bundestag.de)
- Resolves NO if, at the cutoff, the cabinet in office is still composed of CDU/CSU and SPD ministers (including any caretaker period with the same parties).
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 53% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? é resolvido?
- The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de março de 2029.
- Como The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria