SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
One-OffIAChinaTecnologiaGeopolíticaManifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Yes (93%)
Resolvido: 11 de out. de 2026, 21:09
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 13 de out. de 2026, 12:32 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes93%
No7%
Ganhou
Perdeu
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This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
