Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 97.6%
Previsores
22
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado1/04/25, 00:45 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Donald Trump run for a third term
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiWill Trump participate in an election for a third term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump win the 2028 presidential election and be sworn in for a third term?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegras
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Barack Obama publicly announces his candidacy for a third term as President of the United States before January 1, 2028.
- It resolves NO if he does not make such an announcement by that date.
- The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, states: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice." Barack Obama served two full terms as President from 2009 to 2017, which would constitutionally prohibit him from being elected to a third term.
- Considerations
- For this market to resolve YES, Obama would need to either:
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 605,7 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 697,7 mil
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 603,2 mi
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,4 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 471,3 mil
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Obama announces third term candidacy before 2028??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 98% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Obama announces third term candidacy before 2028? é resolvido?
- Obama announces third term candidacy before 2028? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Obama announces third term candidacy before 2028? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution Criteria