[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
IAOne-OffManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 60.7%
Previsores
18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
7/11/23, 00:06 UTC2/02/50, 20:31 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegras
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/8404/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI.
- For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed here.
- If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 61% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI? é resolvido?
- [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de fevereiro de 2050.
- Como [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?