[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
IAOne-Off
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 50.3%
Previsores
18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 31 minutos
7/11/23, 00:06 UTC2/02/50, 20:31 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a widely read alternative to The Doors Of Stone written by AI released by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time, by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Bernie say during his rally in Duluth?
KalshiRegras
By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/8404/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI.
- For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed here.
- If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.