Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 90.9%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado14/06/26, 03:26 UTC13/05/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?
Manifold MarketsWill Darmanin be the candidate supported by Macron in the French presidential elections of 2027?
Manifold MarketsEmmanuel Macron to finish his presidential term in France?
FutuurWill Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsMacron vs Owens: Who wins the defamation lawsuit?
MyriadMacron out by which date?
PolymarketRegras
En réalité, si on regarde froidement les institutions françaises et ce qui s’est passé ces dernières années, la destitution d’Emmanuel Macron est juridiquement possible, mais politiquement très improbable.
- Pour qu’un président soit destitué en France, il ne suffit pas qu’il soit impopulaire ou contesté.
- Il faut une procédure très lourde prévue par la Constitution : il faut d’abord que des parlementaires lancent la démarche, puis que l’Assemblée nationale et le Sénat soient d’accord, et enfin que les deux tiers du Parlement réuni en Haute Cour votent la destitution.
- Autant dire que ça demande un niveau d’accord politique extrêmement rare.
- Dans le contexte actuel, c’est là que ça bloque.
- Depuis la dissolution et la recomposition politique de ces dernières années, l’Assemblée est très fragmentée.
Mercados abertos
EuropePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-3.9pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 22,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 494,6 mil
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 mais resultados
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- No-3.0pt84.2%
- Yes+3.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- € 809,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 123,4 mil
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson+0.5pt77.5%
- Ulf Kristersson-1.0pt20.6%
- Jimmie Åkesson-0.4pt1%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETECB Interest Rates: September 2026
- 25 bps increase-0.1pt100%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
- 25 bps decrease0%
+2 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 3122%
- October 31+2.0pt10%
- December 31, 2025-0.1pt0%
+3 mais resultados
- Berlin State Election Winner
- Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: 5th Place
- Sweden Parliamentary Election: MP Vote Share?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Macron va-t-il être destitué ??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 91% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Macron va-t-il être destitué ? é resolvido?
- Macron va-t-il être destitué ? deverá ser resolvido em 13 de maio de 2027.
- Como Macron va-t-il être destitué ? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: En réalité, si on regarde froidement les institutions françaises et ce qui s’est passé ces dernières années, la destitution d’Emmanuel Macron est juridiquement possible, mais politiquement très improbable.