Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 51.3%
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado1/07/26, 01:28 UTC1/07/27, 01:16 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.
- Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case
- This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
- If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth
- Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking
Mercados abertos
AI
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 51% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3? é resolvido?
- Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de julho de 2027.
- Como Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.