Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 26 de out. de 2026, 05:51 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 86%
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Desatualizado1/07/26, 01:28 UTC1/07/27, 01:16 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Version number/specifier of first public Claude Mythos model
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PolymarketRegras
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.
- Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case
- This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
- If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth
- Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking