Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 93.7%
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado6/12/25, 20:12 UTC1/01/28, 20:08 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will USDA APHIS confirm an African Swine Fever (ASF) case in any animal on US soil in 2026
Manifold MarketsWide acceptance of Lab Leak hypothesis for COVID only within 3 months of Fauci passing away
Manifold MarketsVaccination program for Classical Swine Fever (Hog Cholera) in a Nordic Country before Christmas Eve 2029?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketWill my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
LimitlessRegras
The Spanish government is investigating an outbreak of African swine fever, and is considering a lab leak from a research center as a possible cause: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/
- This market will resolve Yes if, before 2028, Spanish authorities conclude that this outbreak of African swine fever most likely came from a leak from a Spanish lab.
- Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The lab leak must be from a Spanish lab for this market to resolve Yes.
- If the outbreak is determined to be caused by foreign actors (e.g., biowarfare from another country), this market will resolve No. Update 2026-02-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple authorities scenario clarification:
- If MAPA/EUVET scientists conclude it's likely a lab leak → resolves YES
