In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?
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Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 17:55 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualSome year after 2040. 31.1%Líder entre 21 opções
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multiple choice
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Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado2/07/23, 11:10 UTC16/02/41, 13:48 UTC
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Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.
- 'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys.
- The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI.
- Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.
- If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.
