In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday?
One-OffGeopolítica1a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 93%
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13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado1/02/23, 18:49 UTC2/02/28, 07:59 UTC
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock
- The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, who make the famous Doomsday Clock, thinks (or claims to think) humanity is now closer to global catastrophe than at any point since 1947*.
- I find this rather hard to believe.
- What does Manifold think? Is a catastrophe coming?
- I don't know how they define "catastrophe", so I'll leave it up to them! I'll count it as a catastrophe if the Bulletin says it's a catastrophe -- that is, if they say that "Doomsday" has come.
- * More precisely, that we thought we were at any point since 1947
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 93% em 20 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? é resolvido?
- In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de fevereiro de 2028.
- Como In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock