Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
0.001M-0.1M 41.5%Líder entre 6 opções
0.001M-0.1M 41.5%Previsores
23
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado6/06/24, 08:26 UTC1/01/40, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will war in Ukraine deescalate to <100 people killed in a year?
Manifold MarketsIf AI kills everyone, how will it do it?
Manifold MarketsIf, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegras
Criteria for Resolution:
- Intentional Killing: The deaths must be intentional, to the best of our judgment.
- Incidental or unintended consequences of AI actions, such as side effects from a drug developed by AI, do not qualify.
- Event Definition:
- - The event may have long-lasting effects, but it must originate from a more or less instantaneous and well-defined initial action by the AI.
- - The event can span a longer timeframe if the initial AI action directly leads to the deaths over time (e.g., an AI-initiated blackmailing campaign resulting in deaths occurring up to a year after the initial action).
