Quais são as probabilidades atuais de In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 51.3% em 27 de outubro de 2026.

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

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IE "Write a distopian sci-fi book about an AI going rouge".

It should be more or less comparable to a professional human writen-novel, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good.
The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
Has to be be at least 50,000 words.
I will not trade in this market.